USDOver the last week, the USD has fallen against most other majors, and only gained against the JPY and the CHF as carry trades have picked up the pace again. Both the ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufaturing Indices have showed better than forecasted figures, but the ISM Prices Paid showed weaker than forecasted figures, telling us that the growth in the US i picking up a tad, while inflation pressures eases. THe housing market still shows weakening as the pending home sales dopped more than expected and more than prior figures from April. Key event is coming up today as the US June Job Report is released. As the US celebrated Independence Day on Thursday, the ADP Report - the proxy for the Nonfarm payrolls - was released Thursday and came out at 150K vs. 100K expected, adding buying interest to the US currency. Expectations to the Nonfarm figures was revised higher after the ADP report and is currently expected at 125K vs. 98K prior (revised from 97K). The Unemployment rate is expected to come out unchanged at 4.5pct. EURUSD was close to testing the prior highs from April at 1.3680 but was rejected and is currently trading around the 1.36-figure. We expect this pair the be faily range bound with a bullish tendency and see the pair testing the recent highs again within the coming 3 months.GBPMarkets had tuned in for the UK rate decision on Thursday and bought GBP ahead of the figures, making GBPUSD break the 2007 highs at 2.0133 and tested the 2.02 figure. However as the BoE raises rates 25bp as expected to 5.75 pct., GBP-crosses sold off, despite the interest-futures market have priced in two additional hikes. We are expecting GBPUSD to pick up the bullish pace again and see it in 2.03 within the next month as our current expectations are that the Fed will keep rates fixed, increasing the yield-differential in favor of the GBP.
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